Right now the crypto market is sitting about 400B under the All Time High in terms of market cap value. As I said last week it’s pretty much easy mode for trading. Whatever you pick will probably make money. It makes everyone feel like a trading genius. There’s a few things that will turn me ‘into a rude dude.’
Since Last Post
Given the state of the market it’s still hard to really top the commentary from my Feb 12 post.
“BTC has decisively broken out of the consolidation range and set new yearly highs. Volume was up on the breakout. The Money Flow shows BTC market cap growth over other assets—textbook conditions supporting a new bullish market rotation. We are probably starting a new bull rally.”
Since that posting the total market cap of the crypto market is up even more from last week and nearing the ATH, BTC is in price discovery at new ATHs, and many alts have had insane gains.
Where are we now? Sentiment is still at a Greedy Extreme. Crypto Money Flow has made a complete market rotation through all assets and is potentially starting a new rotation into BTC. Vast majority of assets are in bullish structure. The market is almost too top-heavy in the short term. Total MarketCap chart is showing new bearish divergences on the daily after invalidating prior ones. This is a sign for caution in the short term. The weekly chart remains the same with most divergences invalidated so the long term prospects of bullish action are good. BTC Price is setting up more bearish divergences on the daily chart, while invalidating weekly ones. Similarly this is a short term sign for caution. A pullback is on the horizon.
What does all that mean? The bull market is still in full swing but a stagnant period or pullback is coming unless there is a larger influx of volume. Daily charts may see some short term stalling/dips but they are probably only momentary breaks in the weekly scheme of things. I’ve implement a trailing stop for short term profitable positions so I’m not giving back money that I made on the rally and I’m still buying breakouts. I’m less inclined to buy dips, but this is personal preference in risk tolerances.
For my long-term horizons, I’m not doing anything. The macro buy signals didn't come on the last retracement, but that’s ok. With the market nearing a combo of peak greed and ‘validity’ a macro sell signal will come eventually, thus leading to a pullback and probably a macro buy signal. I’ll wait for that higher timeframe cue to time long term buys.
For my shorter-term horizons, I’m watching the BTC to continue to the upside. With BTC in price discovery, meaning no over head resistances and price levels not reached before, momentum (or the RSI) is important to follow for signs of a new resistance forming. Bearish divergence is the key. ETH & ALTS may continue while BTC stagnates or fails. Its critical to pay attention to the Money Flow chart to watch for the rotation out of BTC into other coins.
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Want to see how I got to this assessment? Read on…
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Did you miss the 2024 Q1 Crypto Forecast? You can check it out as well in the link below. Q2 is coming up soon.